The study "Economics of Climate Change in Brazil", presented on Wednesday (November 25) in Brasília and Rio de Janeiro, predicts that Brazil could lose R$ 3.6 trillion of its GDP by 2050, as a result of the impacts caused by global warming. The report examines the impacts of climate change in the development of the country, with macroeconomic outlook, and gives recommendations for adaptation, mitigation and priority actions.
According to the Brazilian minister of the Environment, Carlos Minc, who attended the launch in Rio de Janeiro, the data from this study will be used in the federal program for the prevention of climate change in the Northeast, which will be launched in February next year by President Lula.
To Minc, the study shows that the consequences of climate change are already a fact. The minister stressed that society must put pressure on the authorities and the different economic sectors in their efforts to reduce CO2 emissions and mitigate the effects of global warming.
The study, developed by scientists from leading research institutions in the country, is unprecedented and was inspired by the Stern Report, made by the United Kingdom, which made an economic analysis of the problem of climate change globally. The starting point was projected behavior of the climate by 2050. It took into account the economic impacts for each economic sector. Possible trajectories of global warming, developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), were also used in the analysis.
The Amazon and the Northeast are the regions of Brazil that will have the greatest impact of global warming, predicts the study. The warming in the Amazon could reach 8° C in 2100. With this scenario, 40% of forest cover in the south and south-east of the Amazon may be replaced by grasslands.
In the Northeast, the rainfall would tend to decrease to about 2.5 mm per day by 2100, causing a sharp reduction in the flow of major river basins. Power generation may have a reduction of about 30%. With less rain, the Northeast may even have large agricultural losses, and 25% reduction in the capacity of grazing beef cattle.
The study also predicts significant losses to agriculture in all states. All cultures, except for the sugar cane, would suffer reduction in areas with low risk of production, especially soybeans (up 34%), corn (15%) and coffee (18%).
The launch of the study "Economics of Climate Change in Brazil" was made by the technical coordinators of the report, Sergio Margulis (World Bank) and Carolina Dubeox (Coppe/UFRJ). The president of BNDES, Luciano Coutinho, and the British Ambassador, Alan Charlton, who supported the production, also took part in the event.
Redes Sociais